NFL MVP 2022-2023: Updated Odds & Picks

12 / 06 / 2022 By Ally Mielnicki

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Only a few weeks to go in the season, and the MVP race looks vastly different now than at the beginning of the season. Josh Allen, once a frontrunner, has been bitten by the turnover bug and effectively watched his stock drop. Jalen Hurts, once overlooked, finds himself at the head of the pack. And Russell Wilson, once considered a candidate for MVP and Comeback Player of the Year, has played his way to earning the designation of worst offseason acquisition. 

Where does the race stand today, and which player is our best bet to win the award? Let’s look at the odds courtesy of DraftKings.

Pat Mahomes +125

Jalen Hurts +175

Joe Burrow +600

Tua Tagovailoa +1200

Josh Allen +1400

Geno Smith +5000

Dak Prescott +6000

Justin Jefferson +10000

Tyreek Hill +10000

Kirk Cousins +10000

Tom Brady +10000

Jimmy Garoppolo +10000

Justin Herbert +13000

Davante Adams +15000

Saquon Barkley +15000

Lamar Jackson +15000

Derek Carr +15000


Safe Bets

Pat Mahomes

Many in the media wrote off the Chiefs as the best team in the AFC once Kansas City traded speedy receiver Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins in the offseason. Despite losing Hill, the Chiefs currently sit atop the AFC West with a 9-3 record. Mahomes has been spectacular, leading all QBs in total passing yards and touchdowns. His chemistry with Travis Kelce is impeccable, and in a tough AFC, he has catapulted his team to be in contention for the No. 1 overall seed. Ever since he came into the league, Mahomes has established himself as the best QB in the game, so it may be against him that he has been brilliantly consistent. Still, Mahomes is currently the favorite for MVP, and deservedly so.

Jalen Hurts

The biggest surprise in the MVP race is a QB many were uncertain whether he would be the starter in Philadelphia at this point. Leading his team to an 11-1 record – best in the league – Jalen Hurts has been sensational all season. The addition of WR A.J. Brown proved to be one of the most beneficial trades of the offseason, as the rapport between Brown and Hurts ranks near the top of the NFL. Hurts can be dangerous with his arm and his legs, as he ranks third in passer rating and fourth in QBR. He also has accumulated 612 rushing yards – which is the most for any QB. If the Eagles continue at this pace and finish the season with their lone loss, it would be hard to vote for anyone other than Hurts for MVP.

Best Value Bet

Joe Burrow

No Ja’Marr Chase, no Joe Mixon, no problem. Despite beginning the season with an 0-2 record, Joe Burrow has been phenomenal, leading his team to an 8-4 record. After defeating the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, there is no doubt the Bengals are the hottest team in the league – and the most dangerous. Like last season, Cincinnati is getting hot at just the right time to make another Super Bowl run. What’s been most impressive about Burrow is his ability to stay cool under pressure and play with ice in his veins. He weathered the storm when Chase was forced to miss time with an injury and has continued to win without Mixon. He is second to only Pat Mahomes in passing yards and touchdowns, and his victory over the Chiefs may move the needle in his favor. If Burrow leads the Bengals to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC and defeat Tom Brady in Week 15 and Josh Allen in Week 17, then there will be no other QB with a more impressive slate of victories. Bet him while his value is high. 

Sleeper Bet

Tom Brady

Can the GOAT win another MVP in a down year for him? After last night’s epic 4th quarter comeback against the Saints, anything is possible. Brady geared the Bucs down the field to score two TDs in the game’s final minutes to even Tampa Bay’s record at 6-6 and extend their lead atop the NFC South. Brady currently ranks fifth in the league in passing yards and tied for 14th in TDs, but a hot streak to end the season could see his value rise. Don’t sleep on the best to ever play the game.

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