NFL MVP 2022-2023 – Odds & Predictions

08 / 10 / 2022 By Ally Mielnicki

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The last time a non-QB won the MVP award in the NFL was back in 1986, when Lawrence Taylor took home the trophy as an LB. Last year, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers claimed his second consecutive MVP.

Who do we like to take home the honor this season? Let’s take a look at the odds and give our picks below.

Josh Allen +650

Patrick Mahomes +750

Tom Brady +800

Aaron Rodgers +850

Justin Herbert +900

Joe Burrow +1200

Dak Prescott +1300

Matthew Stafford +1400

Russell Wilson +1400

Kyler Murray +2000

Lamar Jackson +2200

Jalen Hurts +2500

Derek Carr +2800

Derrick Henry +4000

Trevor Lawrence +4000

Top 3 Best Bets

Josh Allen

The Bills enter the 2022-2023 season as favorites to win the Super Bowl, so it only makes sense that their star QB Josh Allen be favored to win the MVP. And with reason. Last year, Allen led his team down to the wire with the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round. He finished the season ranked in the top 10 in TDs and passing yards, and by all accounts, Allen should improve upon that number. With WRs Stefan Diggs, Jamison Crowder, and Gabriel Davis in his pocket, Allen has all the weapons at his side to clinch another division title and be a Super Bowl contender.

Justin Herbert

Since he came into the league, Herbert has turned heads with his instantaneous production, finishing last season second in total yards and third in TDs. Now, entering his third year in the league, Herbert is in a prime position to lead the Chargers to their first division title since 2009. He possesses two of the most reliable receivers in his arsenal (Keenan Allen and Mike Williams) and one of the top versatile RBs in the league in Austin Ekeler. If Herbert can duplicate and improve on his numbers from last season, there is no doubt his name will be at the top of the MVP debate. Should the Chargers win the AFC West in arguably the toughest division in the NFL, then Herbert will be the sure frontrunner. 

Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson is hands down my favorite to win MVP this season. After consecutive mediocre seasons in Seattle, Wilson gets a fresh start with a team that accumulated seven wins with a combo of Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock at the helm. Not only does Wilson join a team with a top-five defense in the league, but he also inherits an upgrade in pass protection in Denver’s offensive line. With top receivers Jerry Jeudy and Cortland Sutton and a dynamic backfield of Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams, this could be a comeback year for Wilson and easily an MVP-caliber one.

Top 3 Safe Bets

Tom Brady

He’s the GOAT. There’s not much up for debate about this one. Antonio Brown may be gone, but Brady has the chance to revitalize Julio Jones’ career, and we can’t discount TE Rob Gronkowski returning at some point this season, even though he says he is retired (again). Brady and the Bucs should have no trouble winning the NFC South and competing for a bye week in the first round of the postseason. All signs indicate Brady has not taken a step back in his production, so we should see similar numbers to his MVP candidate campaign from last season.

Patrick Mahomes

No Tyreek Hill, but that shouldn’t decrease Pat Mahomes’ efficiency all that much. He still has TE Travis Kelce by his side, and newcomer JuJu Smith-Schuster can revive the success he experienced during his first few seasons in Pittsburgh. The AFC West is also the toughest division in the NFL, so if Mahomes can lead the Chiefs to another division title, he can be right up there in the conversation for MVP once again.

Aaron Rodgers

Three in a row? It wouldn’t be out of the left field for Aaron Rodgers. However, this season may be one of the most challenging yet as Rodgers will be without his No. 1 receiver Davante Adams, who now dons the silver and black in Vegas. Still, if Rodgers can repeat his success from last season with much less talent, you can easily make a case that he will deserve MVP this season more than ever.

Top 3 Longshot/Sleeper Bets

Derek Carr +2800

I’ve never been a huge fan of Derek Carr, the player, but there’s no denying his leadership abilities and the respect he commands in the locker room. Carr turned in an underrated 2021 campaign in which he led the Raiders to the playoffs only to lose in the Wild Card round. This season, Carr reunites with his college roommate Davante Adams, who Las Vegas acquired from the Packers in the offseason. Between Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and TE Darren Waller, Carr has one of the best receiving corps in the league. If he can capitalize and put up the numbers, he should qualify to be an MVP candidate. However, the Raiders play in the stacked AFC West. That could be a deterring factor.

Matt Ryan +6000

The Colts were one win away from a postseason berth but dropped their last two games of the games. It was enough for management to move on from Carson Wentz after a single season. In response, the Colts brought longtime Falcons QB Matt Ryan to take over under center. Ryan has enjoyed much success throughout his career, save for the last few seasons. Now Ryan gets a fresh start with a team who many peg as favorites to win their division. While RB Jonathan Taylor is the heart and drive of the Colts’ offense (and a near MVP winner last season), Ryan has the chance to be the veteran presence and bring the leadership the team needs to make a deep playoff run. He has a bright young receiver in Michael Pittman to work with and has the benefit of playing in the weakest division in the AFC. If Ryan can have a resurgence similar to Matt Stafford in LA, who’s to say he is not MVP worthy?

Baker Mayfield +8000

No one currently plays better with a chip on their shoulder than Baker Mayfield. You know Baker will have an immense amount to prove following his bitter divorce with the Browns. The Panthers are a great fit for the former Oklahoma Sooner. Between WRs DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson, along with the versatile Christian McCaffrey, Mayfield enters an ideal situation. Should he perform on par with his 2020 campaign or better, there could be some MVP chatter. It’s a long shot, but not out of the question.


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