NBA Finals 2022: Predictions & Best Bets

05 / 31 / 2022 By Ally Mielnicki

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It’s been nearly two months of buzzer-beaters, double-digit blowouts, controversial calls, and surprise upsets. Needless to say, it has been an entertaining NBA Playoffs thus far. While many fans pegged a rematch featuring the Suns vs. Bucks or Miami, the top seed in the Eastern Conference, to reach the Finals, in the end, we will see two of the best teams in the league square off – the Warriors vs. the Celtics.

This matchup has all the makings to go the distance in a series that will feature dominance from the 3, disciplined defense, and perhaps a battle of depth. With that said, here is our prediction for the NBA Finals:

 

NBA Finals Series Pricing:

Boston +130

Warriors -150

There will be a champion crowned and it will be the Warriors hoisting the Championship trophy after defeating the Celtics in 6. Before the Western Conference Finals, the Mavericks became a hot pick to win the series and advance to the Finals. After all, Luka and the Mavs had just pulled off an improbable upset of the Phoenix Suns on their homecourt. However, Golden State had other plans as the Warriors completely exposed the lack of talent surrounding Doncic and disposed of the Mavs in a Gentleman’s sweep. And it wasn’t down-to-the-wire close either. 

In their 4 wins, the Warriors won by margins of 25, 9, 9, and 10. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson were unstoppable from the 3 with help from Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole on the offensive front. Thanks to stout defense from Draymond Green and Kevon Looney, Luka finally came back to earth as the Mavs were severely overmatched in the series. 

On the other hand, Boston had a more challenging opponent, taking on Jimmy Butler and the top-ranked Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference. After dropping Game 1, the Celtics recovered in Game 2, but only to lose again in Game 3. Back-to-back wins netted Boston a 3-2 series lead, but the Heat were able to win Game 6 to force a Game 7. It was a defense-centered contest between the two teams, but thanks to Jayson Tatum’s 26 points and Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown putting up 24 apiece, the Celtics won 100-96 to move onto the Finals.

In Round 1 of the playoffs, the Warriors were fortunate to oppose a depleted Nuggets squad missing PG Jamal Murray. In Round 2, the Warriors caught another break when Grizzlies star Ja Morant went down at the end of Game 3. And in the Western Conference Finals, Golden State isolated Luka and completely shut down his supporting cast. Now, in the Finals, they will face a Celtics squad at full strength. Boston will be the Warriors’ most formidable opponent to this point. 

Still, in a battle between who can score the most 3’s, Golden State has the edge when it comes to accuracy and depth. Curry and Thompson rank 2 and 4, respectively, this postseason in 3-pointers made. However, they will have to go against Boston’s top-rated defense, which led all teams with points allowed in the regular season and ranked 5th-overall in rebounds. If Curry and Thompson have an off night, Boston should be able to rack up the boards and win in the transition game.

However, the Warriors have yet to play a 7-game series this postseason. They needed only 5 games to advance past the Nuggets and Mavericks and 6 to defeat the Grizzlies. The Celtics, meanwhile, just completed two grueling 7-game series against the Bucks and Heat and now must travel to Golden State for Thursday’s tipoff. At this point in the season, extra rest is vital for players, especially for veterans like Curry and Thompson. The fact that Golden State will have a whole week off before Game 1 could make a significant difference.

While this matchup has all the makings to go the distance, I give the Warriors the advantage given their experience and depth. Curry, Thompson, and Green all have played in 5 NBA Finals together, while this will be the first Finals for most players on Boston’s roster. The key will be the 3-point game. After Tatum and Brown, the Celtics lack effective 3-point shooters. If Curry and Thompson stay hot, Boston will have difficulty keeping pace. It should make for an entertaining series, but in the end, I’m taking the Warriors to advance in 6. 

Prediction: Warriors over Celtics in 6

 

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