What a wild Week 1 of the NFL football season!

We saw the defending champion Rams embarrassed on the same field they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy months earlier.

We watched the Cowboys lose Dak Prescott for several weeks after getting crushed by the Bucs.

We witnessed the Bears upset the Niners, and the Giants surpass the Titans, destroying many people’s Survivor Pools.

And we were left wondering if this is the year the Packers stumble without a true No. 1 receiver, whether the Niners were too quick to pull the plug on Jimmy Garoppolo, and if the Bengals’ AFC Championship season was a fluke.

Let’s break down the weekend. 

How I fared in my picks

I went 10-5 ATS in my Pick ’em pool thanks to last-minute switches to the Steelers +6.5 and the Ravens -7.5. The games I lost were Rams +2.5, Panthers -2.5, Jaguars +3.5, Niners -6.5, and Patriots +2.5. Solid start to my NFL picks.

Betting Results

• Favorites were 8-7 ATS in the first weekend leading up to Monday Night’s game.
• Both Super Bowl teams lost outright – Bengals & Rams.
• Biggest underdogs to win outright – NY Giants (+5.5), Steelers (+6.5), 49ers (+6.5)

Three things that surprised me the most

Niners blow a 10-0 lead to the Bears

To say the conditions were poor on Soldier Field would be an understatement. It was a sloppy game as the rain poured down in the season opener, which sometimes made it hard to watch without any interference on television. Still, in what many pegged would be a blowout by the visiting team, the Niners allowed Chicago’s anemic offense to hang in the game and capitalize on some blown coverage by the San Fran defense.

Before the game, all eyes were on second-year signal caller Trey Lance, who many in the Bay Area view as the next Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. In fact, Lance has received much attention as a dark horse MVP candidate, considering he took over the reins for a team that was one score from advancing to their third Super Bowl appearance in three seasons.

While the blame cannot solely be placed on Lance, he was far from the franchise QB the Niners traded up to draft at No. 3 overall in 2021, going 13-for-28 for 164 yards and a costly INT. Deebo Samuel also fumbled early in the contest deep in Bears’ territory, and RB Elijah Mitchell went down in the first half and failed to return.

Instead, the Niners’ defense allowed Bears QB Justin Fields, struggling all game, to link up with WR Dante Pettis on a 51-yard TD catch and run. This is after the Niners had Fields scrambling before finding a wide-open Pettis to cut the lead to 10-7. After that improbable TD, the momentum swung in the home team’s favor, and the Niners had no answer.

With a young QB, the Niners were looking to take advantage of their easy schedule the first two weeks of the season against the Bears and Seahawks. With an 0-1 record, it will only get harder for San Fran. The Niners were tied with the Bengals as the biggest favorites to lose outright this weekend. That can’t bode well inside the locker room. 

The Cowboys’ offense was abysmal 

The Bucs lost several key contributors to the defense this offseason, and many presumed it would take a hit, with Todd Bowles focusing primarily on head coaching duties. However, the Bucs thrived on the defensive front, shutting down Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Though Dak wouldn’t finish the contest after suffering a hand injury, it was clear the Dallas offense struggled from the beginning. RB Ezekiel Elliot was limited to 10 carries for 52 yards, and Prescott managed to compile only 139 passing yards with an INT. Fantasy owners were disappointed by CeeDee Lamb’s lack of production with only two catches for 29 yards, and Dallas was left shut out of the end zone.

It will only get worse for the Cowboys, who will have to rely on Cooper Rush for the foreseeable future while Dak undergoes surgery. It was apparent the Cowboys lacked firepower on offense, and many will question if it was the right decision to trade away Amari Cooper for a 5th-round pick in the offseason. Mike McCarthy may find himself on the hot seat sooner rather than later, especially if the Cowboys remain at the bottom of their division.

What happened to the Packers’ defense?

Entering Sunday, it became apparent that Aaron Rodgers would have limited resources on offense with presumptive No. 1 wideout Allen Lazard out with an injury and with OT David Bakhtiari out. However, in what many deem as the best defense in the NFC, the Packers allowed Vikings WR Justin Jefferson to run all over them, with nine catches for 184 yards and 2 TDs. 

It was a tough afternoon for the Packers’ defense in their second consecutive Week 1 blowout. Kirk Cousins was able to throw for 277 yards with 2 TDs, while RB Dalvin Cook contributed an additional 90 yards on the ground. 

It’s safe to say that the Packers’ defensive unit will turn things around. However, they better do so quickly, especially if the offense struggles to score points this season.

Other things that surprised me:

• Joe Burrow threw 4 INTs – I picked the Steelers to cover but didn’t think they would win. Bad game for Burrow.
• The Patriots looked like the team that got blown out in the Wild Card round – I thought Belichick would have his team ready, but they played every bit lackluster.
• Baker struggled – I honestly thought Baker Mayfield would come out blazing against his former team, but it took him three quarters to heat up.

Three things that did not surprise me

The New York Giants won!

As a fan, I always root for my team. However, I honestly believed that my G-Men had the potential to pull off the upset in Tennessee yesterday, even without their top draft pick Kayvon Thibodeaux in the lineup. 

For two quarters, it seemed like this was the same old Giants team that underperformed for years under Pat Shurmur and Joe Judge. Then, on the Giants’ first possession in the third quarter, the Giants marched down the field and scored to cut the lead in half. It was precisely what the team needed as New York scored in the final two minutes of play and converted a gutsy two-point conversion to win the game.

The highlight of the day was Saquon Barkley, who put up the kind of numbers Giants fans like me have been waiting for since his excellent rookie campaign. Barkley finished the day with 164 rushing yards, 30 receiving yards, and a touchdown – quite the impressive debut to the 2022 season. While he threw a costly INT in the endzone, QB Daniel Jones was able to shake off the turnover and lead the Giants to victory with 2 TDs in the contest.

Suddenly, the Giants have a promising start to the season. They will take on Carolina at home in Week 2, followed by a Monday Night game against the Cowboys, who will be missing Dak Prescott, and then a showdown with the Bears in Week 4. Could the Giants start the season 4-0? It’s not out of the question.

Josh Allen is the MVP frontrunner

Not much else can be said about Allen except for his greatness. On Thursday night, Allen slaughtered the Rams defense, throwing three TDs and running for one en route to a 31-10 shellacking. Buffalo made a case for being the best team in the league in the NFL opener, and Vegas agrees, as they are the favorites to win the Super Bowl. If Allen continues this play, he should have the MVP trophy locked up.

Derek Carr is not the answer for the Raiders

I like Derek Carr. I do. However, after throwing 3 INTs in a rematch of last year’s regular-season finale against the Chargers, it is clear that no matter the talent surrounding him, he is not the QB to lead this team to a Super Bowl. Newly acquired WR Davante Adams was his usual brilliant self, compiling ten receptions for 141 yards and a TD, but that wasn’t enough as Carr’s turnovers proved to be the Raiders’ undoing. Carr has to protect the ball better and not make careless mistakes, especially against a division rival. The AFC West is already the toughest division in football. The Raiders can’t afford to lose games like this.

Other non-surprises for me:

• Trey Lance struggled – I still think the Niners gave up on Garoppolo too prematurely.
• The Lions are better than people think – Lions +4 was my lock of the week, and they came close to pulling off the upset.
• The Saints will be inconsistent – That is the story of Jameis Winston’s football career.

Three overreactions I’m hearing

• The Packers won’t win the division – they will be fine once Lazard comes back and Bakhtiari.
• The Bears and Justin Fields are for real – 51 of Fields’ 121 passing yards came on one pass that was a blown play.
• The Rams won’t win the division – did you see how the rest of the teams in their division played yesterday?

Three reactions that are not overreactions I’m hearing

• The Cowboys are in trouble – 100 percent. They were the only team in their division to lose yesterday and will be without Dak indefinitely.
• Trey Lance will be benched for Jimmy G – As mentioned above, the schedule only gets tougher from here.
• The Browns will clinch a Wild Card – Yes, they will. They have a relatively easy schedule before Deshaun Watson returns, and then watch out.